Since 1988 the primaries are proportional representation. And yet, people rely on habits of thought developed during general elections, where the only vote that can make a difference is a choice between the two leading candidates.

Supporting and voting for either of the two leading candidates in this race, however, simply does not have the same leverage as supporting and voting for the third place candidate. Because supporting and voting for either of the two leading candidate is a vote in support of the Mass Media conventional wisdom.

While supporting and voting for the third place is an act of Independence from the Mass Media.

And given that we are all seriously screwed unless we shake up the Mass Media conventional wisdom, that means that a vote for either of the top two candidates is a wasted vote ... a vote to permit the coming climate crisis to be as bad as corporate short-sightedness and greed can make it.

This is an issue that has been diaried extensively, and so this diary is on one specific point. Part of Senator Clinton's justification for her vote on the Kyl-Lieberman amendment is the following:

I was in the Senate that day, and was about to vote "no" on this legislation because it had language that President Bush could have used to justify military action against Iran. Working together, Senate Democrats reached across party lines to remove these sections. Only then did I and a lot of other Democrats vote for the resolution in order to pressure Iran by clearing the way for sanctions and pushing the President to get them to the negotiating table. [emphasis added]

full copy of the mailing

The topic of this diary is the specific question of whether the phrase that is emphasized above holds water.

Consider this a background briefing. It is easy to make an analysis of a situation and retain the conclusion of the analysis, even after the facts that the conclusion rested on have changed. And this is the situation here. While we consider economic policy in the event that the current slowdown blooms into a full blown recession, it is easy to retain a mental model of the relationship between the US and Chinese economy circa 2000. But things ... well, they've changed.

This is an elaboration of an earlier comment ... well, series of comments ... at the European Tribune.

The thesis of the argument is that the Chinese economy can weather an American recession without going into a recession itself.

This conclusion is based on three, inter-related points:

• the relative importance of the US export market for continued Chinese growth;
  
• the ongoing decline of the US dollar against the Euro; and
• the ability of the US economy to recapture domestic and overseas markets for manufactured goods in the face of an increase in the Yuan/Renminbi exchange rate.

• not as important as we in the US like to think;
  
• its going to keep on going down, and that is likely to accelerate in the event of recession; and
  
• an extremely limited ability to recapture market share in the event of even a substantial rise in the Yuan/Renminbi exchange rate.

This is an idea for a very simple ad.

{Picture of pump with gas price in district the day before the 2004 election}
This was the price of gas when {name} was elected to the Republican Majority.

{Picture of pump at summer peak}
This was the price this summer at its peak.

{Picture of pump with $??.??}
Look at the price on November 7

{morph into "+$##.##" ... size of jump}

Add this much.

Can you risk a Republican Majority for another two years?

END

Whatever the motives behind putting the Path to 911 on air, if it goes to air then the short term and long term political impact will depend on one simple issue: whether the Democratic response can walk and chew gum at the same time.

On the one hand, for the long term, it is essential to punish ABC and Disney for their role in the Path to 911 (PT911). This is needed to undermine the present presumption that the radical right cannot be provoked, but they can be pandered to with impunity.

However, it is also necessary to construct and broadcast a narrative that grabs the bull by the horns and leverages the broadcast of the PT911 for maximum political benefit in the fight to gain control of one or both Chambers. And that is the focus of this diary.

A lyric, adapted by a concerned Buckeye from "Ohio" by Niel Young. They liked it on OAC, and anyone who wants to use it can ... obviously most useful in Ohio.

Lyrics under the fold.

In the 1930's, there was an idea in common currency of "Economic Space".  What collection of resources and markets were needed by the Big Powers to remain Big Powers -- and how secure were they in their Economic Space.

And in the 1930's, it became clearer and clearer that there were about three Economic Spaces that four Big Powers were trying to fit into -- The UK (as the previous number one economic power), the US (as the recently emerged number one economic power), Germany (as the resurgant Continental European power), and Japan (widely underestimated in its own right, but taken serious in terms of shorter supply lines to the eastern Pacific Basin).

Fitting four into three implied war, and war there was.

And that's what makes the Bush National Security agenda scary.  It seems like the Bush agenda is for the US to have the whole world, and everyone else can have the rest.  If there ever was a path to war, this is it.