Obviously, Obama is not going to be able to campaign in out-state like McCaskill did. But I think she has convinced him that it's worth putting resources in to keep those margins slim. I also think it's worth putting the resources in looking towards governing. There are people in MO who aren't going to be comfortable voting for Obama in 08 who will be supportive of his policies once he's in office.

2. Convincing the white folks. I don't know the best way to approach this, so I'll be blunt. Missouri has some pretty deeply and oddly seeded racial politics. (The "saint" of the MO Dem party, Mel Carnahan, was doing performances in blackface in the 1960's). The most shocking thing for me in the polls I've seen is the number of undecideds. As in, the not insignificant number of MO dems who won't feel comfortable voting for a black man who have yet to jump on the McCain train. I could be wrong, and those undecideds are the religious folks who are holding back on McCain. But in my gut (sorry, no links!) I think the conservative dems are more "independent" than the religious right. I think those undecideds are more open to being convinced to vote for Obama. McCain is their default, but the reason they're undecided is because they're still looking at Obama.

I was about to type that I expect McCain to win MO, but it won't be a blowout. And then I see the Chiefs take a knock at Tom Brady's knee. Who knows what could happen?

3. McCain's ad. I've seen the "not ready to lead" ad a dozen times in the past few days and I question how effective it will be. It's not just that it's pushing a "tax and spend" message which seems unlikely to appeal to the undecideds - the polls indicate he's already tied up that vote here. It's all the old white dudes. Showing Obama working with a series of old white dudes with oatmeal faces and glasses has a potential calming effect on undecideds. A lot of people aren't even going to be able to name the politicians in that commercial. A more effective (for McCain) ad would have included Hillary Clinton, and congressmen/Senators who don't "look like us." Perversely, I don't think the ad buy will hurt Obama. (It's a rich diary for fans of unsupported speculation).

4. Lee's Summit. A few weeks ago, Obama opened a campaign office in Lee's Summit, MO, a suburb of Kansas City and a republican stronghold in heavily democratic Jackson County. No one could remember a democratic presidential campaign opening an office in Lee's Summit. It's applying the basic principle of you have to ask people for their votes. This is pretty obvious, I just mention it so you have a metric of the degree of his commitment to fight here other than campaign appearances. I think it's his 38th office in the state.

Some bonus random thoughts - it's a difficult time to be a liberal democrat in Missouri. McCaskill is conservative. Our nominee for governor (longtime AG Jay Nixon) just put out an ad campaign attacking the republican nominee and identifying himself  as a (g.d.) Independent. He doesn't even identify as a democrat in his own commercial, like it's 2002 all over again. He's been elected AG 4 times with a D next to his name. There can't be many people here who don't know he's a Dem, but he feels the need to distance himself from the party nonetheless. He's also rumored to be responsible for recruiting republican Chris Koster to switch parties. Koster is now our nominee for AG. That depressing fact is an entirely different diary.

The bottom line is that at a time where the country seems more agreeable to democratic policies, the conservative forces in the MO dem party are heading in the other direction and, arguably, just turning the dem party here into the Rockefeller Republican party. As a certain governor famously didn't say, Thanks, but no thanks. In that context, Obama opening offices and training/engaging local progressives is highly appreciated by those of us looking to the future. I don't  blame others for wondering why he's bothering with MO, but I'm terribly grateful that he is.